What\u2019s The Covid-19 Risk Assessment Tool And How Should I Use It?

Living through a global pandemic means having to think twice about doing stuff that used to be a no-brainer, like visiting your family for the holidays. With everything happening right now, traveling or spending time with loved ones comes with a very real risk of contracting or spreading COVID-19.

You’re not flying blind here: Plenty of local governments and public health organizations have issued guidance on what to do. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has also made it clear that any form of travel, and even gathering with friends and family who don’t live with you, increases your chances of coming into contact with COVID-19—or, even worse, spreading it to vulnerable people in your circle.

While the risk of contracting COVID-19 is real everywhere, case counts of the virus aren’t the same in every corner of the country. So, it’s understandable that you might want to consider your options so you can make as informed a decision as possible for your individual situation.

Well, there’s a new online tool called the COVID-19 Risk Assessment Planning Tool that can help. Here’s what you need to know about it and, more importantly, how to use it.

OK, what is the COVID-19 Risk Assessment Planning Tool?

This online tool was developed by researchers from the Georgia Institute of Technology, the Applied Bioinformatics Laboratory, and Stanford University.

At a very basic level, the tool allows you to search for what your level of risk is of coming into contact with someone with COVID-19 in any place in the mainland U.S. The tool also allows you to choose your potential event size (ranging from 10 to 5,000 people).

Once you enter in all of your information, which takes about five seconds, you can see the risk that at least one COVID-positive person will be at the gathering. That information is broken down by percentage (like you have a 25% risk that someone with coronavirus will be around you). You can view the map as a whole, or you can zoom in on the area you’re interested in for specifics.

The tool funnels in real-time data from The Atlantic’s COVID Tracking Project, with county-level data from The New York Times’ COVID-19 data project. Population data is brought in from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Keep this in mind, too: Given that there are plenty of cases of COVID-19 that go undetected, the researchers assumed that there are five times more cases than are being reported (i.e. their ascertainment bias). And, in places where testing is less available, the ascertainment bias may be higher—you’re given the option to bump it up when you search.

What should I use this tool for?

“We created this tool to help people assess the risk of attending an event or gathering,” says tool co-creator Clio Andris, assistant professor of city and regional planning and interactive computing at Georgia Tech. Andris says it can be used for any type of gathering—holiday parties, BBQs, classrooms, daycares, and more formal events. “This way, people can put the local case rates into context and use the data to help make good choices,” she says.

For example, if you’re stressing about whether to see your family for the holidays, you can input your information and see what your actual risk is based on the COVID-19 data from that moment in time. (Note: Since the numbers are always being updated, you probably want to check back regularly.)

Planning to travel? This can help, too. “When traveling, a user can click on their destination county, and see the kinds of risk levels associated with events at that locale,” Andris says. For example, around Ft. Wayne, Indiana, the likelihood of an individual having COVID-19 at an event of 10 people is greater than 50 percent. “That is a risky situation,” Andris points out.

What do experts think about the tool?

“The general public needs tools to help them make better decisions when it comes to COVID risk,” says infectious disease expert Amesh A. Adalja, MD, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. However, he adds, “all of these risk assessment tools will have some limitations and should not be used as a substitute for common-sense precautions.”

It’s what you do with this information that matters, says Timothy Brewer, MD, a professor of medicine in the division of infectious diseases at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA and of epidemiology at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health. “How does the risk percentage help you decide how to modulate your activities?” he says. “Is what you would do at a 77 percent risk level different from what you would do at 67 percent or 87 percent? That’s the challenge.”

That’s why Brewer recommends that people also factor in the advice of local health departments. “The state or county will tell you to stay at home and wear your mask—then you know what you need to do,” he says. And, he adds, “you should be following the advice of local health department, regardless of what the tool happens to say.”

But Adalja says there’s room for this kind of tool, especially since they give people quick and easy answers so they know what their risk level is in any given situation. “Thinking about where you’re going in a more structured and mindful manner, with a tool to help facilitate that, is something that can be implemented to reduce the harm of the virus,” he says.

Also, keep this in mind when mulling over your holiday plans: While Andris helped create the tool, she still says it’s best to avoid gatherings. “Stay home and do not gather with those outside your household,” she advises. “Have gatherings on Zoom, and get creative about showing others that you care about them this holiday season.” If you decide to travel anyway, she recommends avoiding airplane travel—it “can be risky”—get tested to know your status, and drive.

And, of course, wear a mask.

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