Corona-Exit strategy: the researchers present a scenario for way out of the crisis
As he looks, the way out of the Lockdown? This question countless researchers and politicians to go currently. Scientists of the four major German research organizations are now concrete – and a seven-sided Exit submitted-strategy.
Scientists from Germany’s largest research organizations have joined together to ensure a common approach to reducing the Covid-19-to submit epidemic in Germany. The experts from the Leibniz Association, Helmholtz Association, Max-Planck-and Fraunhofer centres of mathematical analysis to the spread of Covid-19 – made diseases, and to predict the further spread taken into account. From their models, they have derived the possible coping strategies.
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Applicable restrictions must be maintained
From their point of view, it is necessary to obtain the applicable restrictions, at least for a few weeks continue. The aim must be to keep the reproduction number (R) is permanently below 1, and thus to keep the number of Infections (N) as low as possible. The new infections are currently gone back that far, was due, according to the researchers on the success of the currently valid measures, and the behavioral adaptation of the population.
The reproduction number (more precisely, basic reproduction number) is estimated, how many people are infects a of Infected, on average. It is an important indicator of how quickly an epidemic spreads. Measures such as output restrictions and hygiene rules to reduce the reproduction number.
Because we could lead, according to the researchers, the smallest fluctuations of R back into a Phase of exponential growth, which would overwhelm the health system, it was necessary to keep the reproductive number of up to the availability of a vaccine with all the possibilities under 1.
Researchers propose a Two-phase strategy
To ensure this, and to be able to the population, nevertheless, from the Lockdown, get, suggest the scientists, a two-phase strategy:
- Phase 1: First, to the new infections so far reduced, until each new infection traceable. The contact constraints are maintained – to the extent that portable and at the same time Testing and Tracing capacities expanded.
- Phase 2: If the new infections as far back gone are that effective contact tracing is possible, contact restrictions, and to be relaxed.
Reported corona virus cases in Germany (click on your state)
The models include the three pillars of structural measures, the mitigation designed to ensure:
1. Hygienic measures, such as Mouth guards in shops and public places or disinfection stations, to infections due to undetected carrier to reduce.
2. Testing and Tracing capacities, local foci of infection early detect cases, isolate close contacts of Infected track, as a precaution in quarantine, and contagion chains to break.
3. Adaptive control of accompanying contact-limiting measures to a renewed increase in new infections to prevent.
Researchers believe that control is the only sensible strategy
In the seven-page paper, the researchers explain, why you think the proposed strategy is the only sensible: “A consistent containment of Sars-CoV-2 is from an epidemiological point of view, currently the only sensible strategy,” you write about. Because neither the complete eradication of the Virus is a fast or slow infestation of the population in a viable way.
The Corona-pandemic restricts the everyday life of the people in Germany. Especially for vulnerable groups such as seniors, everyday tasks are associated with a risk of infection. Therefore, now asked for solidarity! FOCUS Online has therefore launched the campaign “#corona care: Germany helps”. With you! All of the information you find here.
Eradication required international cooperation and great effort. A quick infection would overwhelm the health system, explain the researchers. In General, the success of an infection to ask is – after all, is not clarified until today a final decision on whether former Covid-19-patients are actually immune to the Virus, and if so, how long you are there.
Contact traces are used to replace contact restrictions
The scientists emphasize, however, that it is possible that the number of the nine infections N would be pushed back within weeks so that extensive contact restrictions could be replaced by efficient contact tracking. A consistent enforcement of the measures was necessary. For the long-term management of the Sars-CoV-2-pandemic new medical discoveries and pharmaceutical developments of crucial importance were also.
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